Max Verstappen can clinch his 4th title in Las Vegas.. unless?
After winning his first Grand Prix since the Spanish GP, the Drivers’ Championship can be clinched in Las Vegas. That is, of course, barring extraordinary instances.
© Planet F1
Reigning world champion and current championship leader Max Verstappen claimed his most impressive and epic victory of his Formula 1 career, after starting 17th on the grid to make his way up in an overly dramatic and exciting Brazilian Grand Prix.
While the contending Lando Norris started from pole, a pit stop to change to the extreme wet tyres just before a red flag blitzed his chances to outscore and gain a massive boost in his championship hopes. It also didn’t help that the Briton went wide at Turn 1 on the SC restart, after Carlos Sainz crashed out in his Ferrari.
In the end, the McLaren crossed the finish line of the 69-lap race P6, losing 18 points to his rival in the Grand Prix alone (Verstappen secured the Fastest Lap as well) while only gaining two in the Sprint race (with the help of his teammate Oscar Piastri), meaning that in a weekend where the Dutch driver was set to take a 5-place grid penalty for new components, Norris failed to capitalize massively.
The McLaren driver didn’t meet expectations in a crucial race weekend. © Ruano Carneiro/Getty Images
After the monumental results of the race weekend, Verstappen can secure and clinch his fourth consecutive title at the glamorous lights of Las Vegas, where he won the inaugural running last year in an unexpected race. The Las Vegas Strip Circuit brought the heat with stunning overtakes and roaring clashes between all the cars.
On the other hand, the McLaren driver suffered a massive crash in the early laps of the Grand Prix after losing control under acceleration. This bodes very contrasting track records for the two championship contenders, where Verstappen is confident he is able to win it all under the American lights.
How can the title fight stay alive after Las Vegas?
In the remaining three races of the season, there are 86 points up for grabs – 26 in Las Vegas, 34 in Qatar for the Sprint weekend, and 26 for the final race in Abu Dhabi. To serve as a quick reminder, here is how the points are distributed for the finishing positions:
Grand Prix points distribution
P1 - 25 points
P2 - 18 points
P3 - 15 points
P4 - 12 points
P5 - 10 points
P6 - 8 points
P7 - 6 points
P8 - 4 points
P9 - 2 points
P10 - 1 point
FL - 1 point (if the driver finishes in the top 10)
For the Sprint race, the points are awarded based off of the drivers’ finishing position reversed. For example, the driver in P1 will get 8 points and the driver in P8 gains 1 point. While it may not be much, every point matters in Formula 1, whether you're a frontrunner, midfielder, or backmarker. It matters even more for little Lando Norris, however.
The Strip under the night lights of Vegas can bring some spicy drama. © F1
The Las Vegas GP is a crucial race for both drivers, as one aims to clinch his championship and the other hopes to continue this fight to the last race of the season. Barring extraordinary conditions and DNFs – such as shortened races due to Safety Cars or red flags, or canceled races as a whole – here is how the championship fight can stay alive for Norris for Qatar and Abu Dhabi:
If Verstappen finishes P1, he clinches the championship
If Verstappen finishes P2, Norris needs to finish P1,
If Verstappen finishes P3, Norris needs to finish P2, or P1 if Verstappen takes FL,
If Verstappen finishes P4, Norris needs to finish P3, or P2 if Verstappen takes FL,
If Verstappen finishes P5, Norris needs to finish P4 with FL or P3,
If Verstappen finishes P6, Norris needs to finish P5 with FL or P4,
If Verstappen finishes P7, Norris needs to finish P6 with FL or P5,
If Verstappen finishes P8, Norris needs to finish P7 with FL or P6,
If Verstappen finishes P9, Norris needs to finish P8 with FL or P7, and
If Verstappen finishes P10 or out of the points, Norris needs to finish P9 with FL or P8.
To conclude, Norris needs to outscore Verstappen by at least three points to keep this uphill fight alive. He needs Verstappen to have horrid luck or lackluster drives if the Briton wants any chance to win his maiden championship.
Who’s faster right now, Red Bull or McLaren?
No one has the precise answers to the cars’ pace. © F1
Due to the unreal circumstances of the Grand Prix at São Paulo last Sunday, it’s unclear which of the two drivers’ title contending teams are stronger. Sure, there was the Sprint race the day before, but it doesn’t give us a long enough analysis on the cars’ raw pace.
McLaren did appear to be much faster during the Sprint race, as both Norris and Piastri maintained a constant gap in P1 and P2, before a late Safety Car neutralized the action and prevented any other challengers from behind to make a late attack. However, the Austrian team have filed complaints and accusations that the team from Woking have been filling their Pirelli tyres with some form of liquid inside – most likely water – to keep the tyre temperatures cooler than normal.
During the Sprint, the track conditions were much tougher than last year. With new asphalt laid down and hotter than expected temperatures, it was expected that all of the tyres would degrade to nearly 0% at the end of the 24-lap run. Suspicions of this arose as the McLarens kept their fast pace towards the end of the race, prompting these new theories.
As of now, it’s still somewhat skeptical of who has the stronger machinery, but the pace will be known during the predicted-to-be dry conditions during the Las Vegas sessions.
Will Ferrari be someone to stir the pot?
Despite their underwhelming performance over the Brazilian race weekend, Ferrari are still major contenders for wins and podiums over the remaining three – four if counting the Sprint - races.
The Maranello team disappointed at Interlagos, but it might just be a fluke. © Motor Authority
The Scuderia are certainly still a team to look out for, seen from their incredible results over the course of the triple header, taking home two wins and four podiums. With some strong results here and there, the title fight – both drivers’ and constructors’ – may significantly shift.
Even if either Verstappen or Norris claims the drivers’ championship, the most consistent duo on the grid in the scarlet red cars have a very good portfolio to secure the first constructors’ championship for Ferrari since 2007, but until then, we are in for a thrilling last couple of spectacles in 2024.
